Geoff Lichy

creator + jack of all trades

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Category: Politics

Erdogan’s Purge

After the attempted coup, beginning late on July 15th, president Recep Erdogan has begun purging the system. Over 50,000 people have been fired, suspended, or detained. While the purge is guaranteed to continue due to Erdogan’s religious and political motivations, it’s not clear when he’ll stop. The BBC doesn’t believe there will be martial law, curfews, or some other potential actions. Political scientist Soner Cagaptay writes that Turkey “will be less free and less democratic” following the coup attempt. He, along with others, felt a coup was coming. Turkey has a history of coup attempts, some successful.

A rough running list of Turkish institutional casualties for 2016:

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2016’s Final Super Tuesday

The tl;dr

Sanders wins 2 states for 283 delegates (total of 1804). Clinton wins 4 states for 372 delegates (total of 2184).

Trump wins all 5 states for 297 delegates. He now has 1536 of the 1237 delegates needed to become the Republican nominee.

This post is current as of 8 June 2016.

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The US political race is almost over

tl;dr

Trump running unopposed. Clinton and Sanders still fighting for their nomination.

What happened?

This week, Ted Cruz dropped out of the race. (May 3rd) The very next day, John Kasich suspended his campaign in a last-minute decision. (May 4th) Both were disappointed by the results coming out of Indiana’s primary. Neither had any mathematical chance of securing enough delegates to become the Republican nominee.

This leaves Donald Trump as the last man standing on the Republican side. Originally given a 1% chance at securing the nomination, he somehow defeated 16 other Republicans and now has a 99% chance of being the nominee. After all, he’s running unopposed. Who’s going to beat him?

Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton are both a ways off from securing the Democrat nomination.

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Super Tuesday #4

Some people are calling it a “mini Super Tuesday.” Others aren’t calling it anything in particular.

Regardless, it’s a Tuesday, and people in multiple states headed to polling locations.

tl;dr

  • Trump winning 5 out of 5 in a landslide
  • Clinton projected to win 4 or 5 out of the 5
  • Sanders projected to win 1 or 2 out of the 5

Results as of 9:30 EST on 26 April 2016:

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NY’s ridiculous process to change your political party

In today’s news people are laughing about how “Trump’s kids aren’t able to vote for him.” I don’t think many people know how strange New York’s laws can be.

I’m registered to vote in NY as an independent. A few months ago I mailed in paperwork to the board of elections to change my party enrollment. (Only Democrats and Republicans can vote in the New York primaries.) The website says “Application must be postmarked no later than March 25th and received by a board of elections no later than March 30th to be eligible to vote in the Presidential Primary.” Sounds good, right? Well…

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Apple vs the FBI: the end?

Yesterday the FBI withdrew from their fight.

“The U.S. Department of Justice said Monday that investigators were able to use a new technique to hack into an iPhone that was used by San Bernardino gunman Syed Farook. As a result, the government ‘no longer requires the assistance from Apple’ to break into the phone — and is dropping its efforts to compel Apple to crack its own iPhone encryption against its will.” (Mashable)

Edward Snowden sums it up:

https://twitter.com/Snowden/status/714580910448971776 (“Journalists: please remember that government argued for months that this was impossible, despite expert consensus.”)

The FBI’s entire argument was that they couldn’t break into the iPhone. They argued that Apple had to be forced to write unique code to open their own product. From what I saw, few experts believed the government.

The skeptics were right all along.

Another Super Tuesday

Clinton and Trump continue to roll on.

To no one’s surprise, Ben Carson and Marco Rubio have dropped out this month. Rubio was the establishment favorite after Bush left the campaign trail, and the same things happened to both. Super PACs just don’t have the clout they used to. The GOP’s last stand is now Kasich. I didn’t expect him to win Ohio; I underestimated his popularity there. Bernie Sanders continues to have huge support that can’t get translated into real world votes. Not enough to win a lot of states from Hillary, anyway.

Clinton and Trump are more than halfway to securing nominations. So far it looks like the November election will be these two facing off.

Apple versus the FBI: which side is right?

The truth is, no one really knows. It’s a complicated situation and every side has their points. I think an FBI victory could set a dangerous precedent that makes Americans less safe.

If you’re unfamiliar with what’s going on, here’s a basic explanation: A terrorist in San Bernardino had an iPhone and the FBI wants to break in. The FBI is demanding that Apple write a program that would allow the FBI access to the iPhone. For more details Sophos has a good article.

In this case, it’s unlikely the FBI will find anything of value. As admitted by the San Bernardino police chief. The shooters destroyed their personal phones beyond repair. The FBI wants to get into a work phone that was left behind. This brings up an important question. If the shooters were careful and disposed of relevant evidence, why would they leave any other evidence? I doubt they forgot about the work phone. Realistically, they didn’t bother to also destroy the work phone because it was irrelevant.

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Winners and losers on Super Tuesday

By delegate count:

Superdelegates are controversial and probably shouldn’t be counted. Those delegates are uncommitted – they don’t make an impact in elections yet. They can change their minds. With only committed delegates it’s a 594/405 split for Democrats.

The Republican side is a little different. There are fewer delegates and more candidates, so it could be harder to catch up. Sanders can beat Clinton in delegate count after winning a big state. Can Cruz beat Trump without a state like Florida? Trump is the current favorite there. And after Cruz’s New York values comments, Trump will easily beat him in New York.

If you want to see how the votes stack up in other ways, The Guardian has plenty of detail.

March 5th (Saturday) is the next big day for voters. June 14th is the last day of primary/caucus results.

People are now expecting a Trump versus Clinton head-to-head. National polls for the GOP show Trump with a commanding lead; with Cruz and Rubio fighting for second. National polls for Democrats give Clinton a noticeable lead that fluctuates in strength.

Who’s going to win big on Super Tuesday?

The short answer: looks like Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump.

The 2016 race has been packed full of contenders. This is who remains:

Democrats:

  • Hillary Clinton
  • Bernie Sanders

Republicans:

  • Donald Trump
  • Marco Rubio
  • Ted Cruz
  • John Kasich
  • Ben Carson

Let’s start this analysis with the Democrats.

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